Tropical Storm Grace Forms Over Caribbean, Speeding Toward Islands

The storm could pass over or near earthquake-battered Haiti, where heavy rain could lead to potential mudslides, the National Hurricane Center said on Saturday.,

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Tropical Storm Grace formed in the eastern Caribbean on Saturday morning, generating tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and other parts of the Caribbean, and is now expected to bring heavy rain and potential mudslides to Haiti, which was hit by a 7.2-magnitude earthquake on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm was moving west at 26 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 40 m.p.h., the center said in an advisory at 5 p.m., adding that Grace was about 55 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe. The center said that Grace was “moving quickly” and that it could strengthen over the next couple of days.

Other islands with tropical storm warnings include the British Virgin Islands, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Antigua and Barbuda, the center said. Parts of the Dominican Republic were under a tropical storm watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

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Tropical Storm Grace was expected to move over the Leeward Islands on Saturday night before getting to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday.Credit…NOAA

The storm was expected to move on Saturday night over the Leeward Islands before getting to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then reach or pass near earthquake-battered Haiti on Monday. Grace was projected to weaken by Monday or Tuesday, the center said.

Parts of the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could expect three to six inches of rain, the center said, along with flash flooding. The storm was expected to dump rain on Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas next week.

The storm began to strengthen as a powerful 7.2-magnitude earthquake rocked Haiti on Saturday morning. The center said that people on the island should monitor the path of Grace, and that tropical storm warnings for Haiti and other nearby islands could be required later on Saturday or on Sunday.

Over Haiti, the storm could dump three to six inches of rain, with isolated totals up to eight inches, the center said, adding that heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and potential mudslides on Monday and into Tuesday.

Before the center’s 5 p.m. update, Robbie Berg, a hurricane specialist at the center, said the earthquake could increase the chance of mudslides.

“It could have shifted some of the ground and soil which could make mudslides more common,” he said.

One video from Les Cayes, Haiti, showed residents, fearing tsunami warnings triggered by the quake, fleeing a surge of seawater flooding a street. The U.S. Tsunami Warning Center had reported a tsunami threat for some coasts.

Grace is the seventh named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, following several days of floods and power outages unleashed this week by Fred, the sixth named storm of the season. Fred dissipated on Saturday, but its remnants were expected to become a tropical storm yet again as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, the center said.

The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming more apparent. A warming planet can expect to see stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms — though the overall number of storms could drop, because factors like stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.

How Do Hurricanes Form?

John SchwartzReporting on the climate

How Do Hurricanes Form?

John SchwartzReporting on the climate

Hoboken, N.J., after Elsa.Eduardo Munoz/Reuters

Hurricane season is well underway; the fifth named storm, Elsa, hit Florida and caused flooding into the Northeast in early July.

Where do they come from? ->

How Do Hurricanes Form?

John SchwartzReporting on the climate

Atlantic hurricanes get their start in Africa. Wind blowing westward off of the coast hits warm ocean water and under the right conditions, storms can form.

The difference in temperature between the air and the sea powers storms.

Inside the storm moisture evaporates and rises, drawing in new air that swirls in behind it.

The rising moisture cools and forms storm clouds, releasing heat. Nudged by Earth’s rotation, the system spins faster and faster.

How Do Hurricanes Form?

John SchwartzReporting on the climate

Lake Charles, La.William Widmer for The New York Times

If wind shear doesn’t disrupt it, the storm will grow and move where the winds steer it. As it wanders to the west, it may harmlessly drift back out to sea or hit land, bringing disaster.

How Do Hurricanes Form?

John SchwartzReporting on the climate

When wind speeds hit 39 miles per hour it’s a tropical storm. At 74 mph, a hurricane. The strongest is Category 5, with winds over 157 mph.

Hurricanes have always occurred so scientists don’t say that climate change is “causing” storms. But the warming planet is affecting them in several ways.

How Do Hurricanes Form?

John SchwartzReporting on the climate

How? Warmer ocean waters give energy to storms, and climate change appears to be making strong Atlantic hurricanes even stronger than they otherwise might be.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, so storms are becoming rainier; many also move more slowly than before, and dump more rain.

Higher sea levels also make storm surge worse. Weather experts warn that the biggest risk of most hurricanes is water, not wind.

How Do Hurricanes Form?

John SchwartzReporting on the climate

NOAA

Last year’s hurricane season was a record breaker on many levels. Forecasters said in May and again in August that 2021 shouldn’t be as active, but a single storm making landfall can wreak tremendous destruction.

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Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.

A major United Nations climate report released in August warned that nations have delayed curbing their fossil-fuel emissions for so long that they can no longer stop global warming from intensifying over the next 30 years, leading to more frequent life-threatening heat waves and severe droughts. Tropical cyclones have likely become more intense over the past 40 years, the report said, a shift that cannot be explained by natural variability alone.

Ana became the first named storm of the season on May 23, making this the seventh year in a row that a named storm developed in the Atlantic before the official start of the season on June 1.

In May, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast that there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, six to 10 of which would be hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher in the Atlantic. In early August, in a midseason update to the forecast, they continued to warn that this year’s hurricane season would be an above average one, suggesting a busy end to the season.

Matthew Rosencrans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that an updated forecast suggested that there would be 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, by the end of the season on Nov. 30.

Last year, there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and move to using Greek letters.

It was the highest number of storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and included the second-highest number of hurricanes on record.

Alyssa Lukpat and Jesus Jimenez contributed reporting.

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